Big Ten Championship Roulette: Spartans take the high road

November 16, 2011   ·   0 Comments

Big Ten Championship Roulette: Spartans take the high road

The Ghost of Big Ten Chaos migrated last weekend from Northwestern to Purdue, which simplified life in the Leaders Division by effectively knocking Ohio State out of the running in a 26-23, overtime stunner. The key word there being effectively: Unlike Iowa, which was mathematically ejected from contention at Michigan State, the Buckeyes remain one of the six teams clinging to a glimmer of hope with two weeks to go. Clearly, though, some glimmers are more equal than others.

• BET: Michigan State (Legends) and Wisconsin (Leaders).
Michigan State, obviously. The Spartans are all alone in first place of the Legends Division, staring at the cakiest finish in the league: Against Indiana (0-6 in Big Ten play) on Saturday, and at Northwestern (2-4) on Nov. 26. An MSU win in either game eliminates Michigan, regardless of how the Wolverines finish; even if they somehow manage to lose one, the Spartans can get the nod with a Nebraska loss against Michigan or Iowa. Anything short of Indianapolis would be a certifiable choke.

Wisconsin’s path to an Indy rematch is just as direct, though slightly bumpier: The Badgers have to get by fast-fading Illinois this Saturday — no gimme in Champaign, despite four consecutive Illini losses and a head coach who’s beginning to feel the walls closing in — then beat Penn State in Madison in what amounts to a championship game for the top of the Leaders Division. Of the two, winning at Illinois may be tougher, considering a) Both of Wisconsin’s losses have come on the road, at Michigan State and Ohio State, and b) Russell Wilson and Co. have won all six at home by an average margin of 41 points, including a 48-17 trouncing of Nebraska on Oct. 1.

On paper, the Badgers are still the class of the conference by a mile, the only team in the nation that ranks in the top ten in terms of both total and scoring offense and total and scoring defense. (They’re up there in rushing offense and pass efficiency, too, and not far out in turnover margin.) Thanks to Nebraska’s win at Penn State, they don’t need anymore help to prove it.

• PASS: Michigan (Legends) and Ohio State (Leaders).
The Wolverines are decidedly not collapsing this November, taking an 8-2 record into a pair of very winnable home games against Nebraska — they’re 3.5-point favorites Saturday for the ‘Huskers’ first visit to Ann Arbor since 1962 — and Ohio State. Even the skeptics are beginning to come around on the defense after a fairly dominating effort at Illinois. But no matter how fast or optimistic the finish, Michigan State’s head-to-head win on Oct. 15 put Michigan in the passenger seat in the Legends Division, and the Spartans aren’t about to concede the wheel. One more MSU win against either of two heavy underdogs, and the Wolverines can officially start planning for another New Year’s in Florida.

On the other side, Ohio State’s flop in West Lafayette took its fate out of its own hands, and put it in Ron Zook’s hands: For any chance of winning the Leaders Division, the Buckeyes must not only beat Penn State Saturday in Columbus, but also get a Wisconsin loss courtesy of the Fighting Illini. Then they must not only beat Michigan on Nov. 26, at Michigan, but also get a Penn State loss courtesy of the Badgers. All four of those things have to happen: Ohio State beats Penn State, Illinois beats Wisconsin, Wisconsin beats Penn State, Ohio State beats Michigan. If anyone one of them doesn’t happen — and none at this point is better than a 50/50 proposition in OSU’s favor — the Buckeyes are out.

• WILD CARD Penn State (Leaders).
What is there to say about Penn State after the last ten days? Saturday’s loss to Nebraska was wholly expected under the circumstances, but it didn’t knock the Nittany Lions from their perch in the Leaders Division, and the ongoing turmoil didn’t stop them from coming up with a strong counterpunch in the fourth quarter. It also didn’t change the fact that Matt McGloin is still the starting quarterback, and still looks overmatched.

Now that the emotion of that day has faded, the question now is: How much gas do the Lions have left for must-win road dates against Ohio State and Wisconsin? The good news is, from Penn State’s perspective, Saturday’s trip to Columbus is essentially meaningless. No matter what happens there, win or lose, the winner of the Leaders Division will be determined at Wisconsin on Nov. 26. But the state of the team at that point is anyone’s guess.

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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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